1.岳昌君 张沛康 林涵倩：就读重点大学对人工智能就业替代压力的缓解作用

　　【摘要】随着人工智能的高速发展，劳动力市场的许多岗位存在被替代的风险。文章基于2017年全国高校毕业生就业状况调查数据，考察就读重点大学对人工智能的就业替代压力的缓解作用。研究结果显示，与非重点大学相比，重点大学毕业生能进入就业替代率更低的行业，说明就读重点大学能缓解人工智能的就业替代压力。这些结论在控制样本选择偏差和解决内生性问题后依然成立。对其影响机制的进一步研究发现，重点大学主要通过提升学生的专业技能和引导学生形成良好的人格特征，帮助他们进入就业替代率更低的行业，降低被人工智能替代的风险。此外，缓解作用在不同专业背景和职业类型上具有异质性，对于人文社科、理工科学生及从事非常规知识型工作的学生而言效果最为明显。

　　【关键词】重点大学 人工智能 就业替代率 高校毕业生

　　【作者】岳昌君，北京大学教育学院教育经济研究所，教授；张沛康，北京大学教育学院教育经济研究所，硕士研究生；林涵倩，北京大学教育学院教育经济研究所，硕士研究生。

　　【责任编辑】朱犁

　　The Role of Elite College Education in Alleviating the Substitution Pressure of Artificial Intelligence Employment

　　Yue Changjun and Others

　　With rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), many jobs in the labor market are at risk of being substituted. Using data from the National Employment Survey of College Graduates in 2017, this paper analyzes the impact of graduating from elite colleges in alleviating the risk of AI employment substitution. The results show that, compared with those from non-elite colleges, graduates from elite colleges enter industries with lower substitution risks, suggesting a protective effect of graduating from elite colleges. These conclusions remain valid after controlling for the sample selection bias and eliminating endogeneity. It also points out that the mechanism is mainly by upgrading their professional skills and developing favorable personalities, which help to reduce the risk of being substituted by AI. In addition, it evaluates the heterogeneity of the mitigation effect among different professional backgrounds and occupational groups. The effect is most salient for students of Humanities and Social Sciences, Engineering and those engaged in non-routine cognitive occupations.

　　2.章元 王驹飞：预期寿命延长与中国城镇居民的高储蓄率——来自地级市城镇家庭的证据

　　【摘要】文章首先从生命周期的角度解释预期寿命延长会提高城镇居民的家庭储蓄率：预期寿命的延长意味着退休后存活的时间更长，从而工作期间需要更多地储蓄以应对退休后更长时间内的收入下降；但这一机制不适合解释农户的储蓄行为，这是因为农民不存在退休和退休后收入的急剧下降。文章基于中国城镇部门的数据进行检验后发现：（1）基于2005～2013年地级市面板数据的实证研究显示，预期寿命延长1年会使城镇居民的家庭储蓄率提高3.7%；（2）基于2005～2012年国家统计局城镇家庭调查数据的实证研究显示，如果退休后的预期存活时间长于剩余工作时间，城镇居民的家庭储蓄率更高，从另一个侧面反映预期寿命对城镇居民家庭储蓄率的影响。文章基于宏观和微观数据检验了预期寿命延长对中国城镇居民高储蓄率的影响，有助于理解储蓄率的走向和影响因素，为评估延迟退休政策对家庭储蓄率的影响奠定实证基础。

　　【关键词】预期寿命 高储蓄率 延迟退休 个人所得税

　　【作者】章元，复旦大学经济学院，教授；王驹飞，复旦大学经济学院，博士研究生。

　　【责任编辑】朱犁

　　The Impact of Expanding Life Expectancy on Savings Rate: Evidence from Urban Households

　　Zhang Yuan Wang Jufei

　　Based on the life cycle theory, longer life expectancy usually results in higher savings rate for urban households, because they should save more to smooth the sharply decreased income for the extended life span after retirement. However, this does not apply to rural households in China because peasants do not retire and their income will not experience sharp decrease. Based on the panel data of urban households from 2005 to 2012, this paper finds that (1) the average household savings rate increases by 3.7 percent for a one-year increase in life expectancy, and (2) if expected life expectancy upon retirement is longer than the remaining working time, urban household savings rate is higher. Based on macro- and micro-data, this paper examines the effects of longer life expectancy on household savings rate, which helps to understand the trend of savings rate and its determinants, and to provide empirical foundation for pension policy reforms.

　　3.聂伟：就业质量、生活控制与农民工的获得感

　　【摘要】农民工获得感的评价主体是农民工，评价内容是“客观获得”，而评价标准则是“主观感受”。文章基于主客观相结合的分析思路，利用8个城市农民工问卷调查数据，以生活控制感为中介变量，分析农民工就业质量对获得感的影响及其路径。研究结果表明：（1）农民工的就业质量对获得感有显著的直接影响。具体而言，农民工的就业质量越高，即工资水平、职业身份、技能培训和主观职业地位状况越好，获得感水平越高，工作权益维度各变量的影响不显著，较长的工作时间不利于获得感的生成。（2）就业质量能够通过生活控制感的中介作用间接影响获得感。生活控制感是职业身份、工资水平、技能培训、主观职业地位、单位所有制、加入工会、职业类型与获得感的中介变量。据此，文章提出在就业领域推动包容性的政策设计，改善农民工就业质量，进而提升农民工获得感水平。

　　【关键词】就业质量 获得感 生活控制感 农民工

　　【作者】聂伟，深圳大学城市治理研究院，研究员。

　　【责任编辑】朱犁

　　Employment Quality, Life Control and Migrant Workers’ Sense of Gain

　　Nie Wei

　　Based on the combination of subjective and objective indicators, this paper analyzes the effect of migrant workers’ employment quality on the sense of gain using the survey data from 8 cities. The sense of life control is treated as the mediating variable in the analysis. The results are as follows (1) The employment quality of migrant workers has a significant direct effect on the sense of gain. The higher the employment quality of migrant workers, as indicated by wage, occupational identity, skill training and subjective occupational status, the higher the sense of gain.The influence of work rights and interest is not significant, and long working time is harmful to the sense of gain. (2) The employment quality also affects the sense of gain indirectly through the sense of life control. Specifically, the sense of life control is the mediating variable between employment quality and sense of gain. Therefore, it is important to design inclusive policies in employment, improve the employment quality of migrant workers, and thus to improve the level of migrant workers’ sense of gain.

　　4.解雨巷 解垩：教育流动、职业流动与阶层代际传递

　　【摘要】文章基于2015年中国综合社会调查（CGSS）数据，把父代与子代之间教育程度和职业层次的差异，以及子代14岁时家庭主观所处阶层与其当前主观阶层之间的差异纳入同一分析框架，利用Ordered Logit模型考察代际教育流动、职业流动对阶层代际传递的影响。实证结果表明，阶层具有较强的继承性，父子两代的阶层关联性强于教育和职业关联性，中低阶层呈现向上的代际流动趋势，中高阶层存在向下流动的压力，父子同处于中间阶层的分布较集中；代际教育和职业向上流动始终是实现阶层改善的重要途径，但其对阶层的改善作用具有时代特征，近年来教育因素、职业因素对阶层改善的作用出现弱化趋势，阶层固化现象初步显现；代际流动呈现地区、城乡异质性，东部地区、城市地区代际职业向上流动对代际阶层改善作用大于教育向上流动，而西部地区、农村地区教育流动对阶层改善的效果强于职业流动对阶层改善的效果。

　　【关键词】代际教育流动 代际职业流动 阶层代际传递 阶层流动

　　【作者】解雨巷，山东大学经济学院，博士研究生；解垩，山东大学经济学院，教授。

　　【责任编辑】朱犁

　　Educational, Occupational Mobility and Intergenerational Socioeconomic Status Transmission

　　Xie Yuxiang Xie E

　　Based on the 2015 CGSS data, this paper integrates the educational and occupational mobility with the subjective socioeconomic status transmission between father and child into a single research framework. It investigates the influence of educational mobility and occupational mobility on inter-generational social class transmission using ordered logit models. The empirical results show that the social class has a strong inheritance, and the intergenerational class correlation is stronger than that of education or occupation. The middle and low social classes assume an upward inter-generational trend, while the middle and upper class have a pressure of downward trend.The distribution of the father and the son in the middle class is relatively concentrated. It can be seen that both educational and occupational mobility have a statistically significant positive relationship with the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status. However, their effects on the improvement of class change over time. Recently, the effect of education and occupation on the improvement of class weakens, and the phenomenon of class solidifying emerges. Intergenerational occupational mobility is more significant than educational mobility in improving inter-generational class transmission in the eastern and urban regions, while the effect of educational mobility is stronger than that of occupational mobility in western and rural regions.

　　5.姜全保 梅 丽 邰秀军：中国人口出生性别比的区间估计

　　【摘要】对中国人口出生性别比的研究有两个问题值得重视，一是直接采用出生性别比的点估计而非区间估计的结果可能做出错误判断；二是出生性别比置信区间估计方法不同，可能带来结果和结论的差异。文章介绍了6种估计人口出生性别比置信区间的方法，比较了其适用性，分析了中国城镇人口出生性别比置信区间。研究发现，样本量较小时各方法的估计结果存在差异，出生性别比的偏态分布使Delta方法的区间估计偏离实际，不同方法可能会得到相反的结论。中国城镇人口出生性别比总体上异常，部分年份出生性别比较高，但由于样本量较小而置信区间长度较大，观测值落在正常情况下出生性别比置信区间之内，或者观测值的置信区间部分处于正常出生性别比（107）之下，无法判断出生性别比异常。

　　【关键词】出生性别比 Delta方法 贝叶斯推断 置信区间

　　【作者】姜全保，西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院人口与发展研究所，教授；梅丽，西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院人口与发展研究所，博士研究生；邰秀军，山西师范大学经济与管理学院，教授。

　　【责任编辑】朱犁

　　Confidence Interval Estimates of China’s Sex Ratio at Birth

　　Jiang Quanbao and Others

　　Two problems are noteworthy in the research of China’s sex ratio at birth. One is that the use of point estimate rather than a confidence interval of sex ratio at birth may lead to wrong conclusions. Another is that different estimation methods may lead to different results and conclusions. This paper reviews six methods of computing confidence interval, compares their applicability, and evaluates their performances in estimating the confidence interval of sex ratio at birth in urban China. The study shows that, given a relatively small sample, the results from each method differ, and the skewed distribution of SRB usually results in a great deviation for the estimation using Delta method from the true value. Different methods can suggest opposite conclusions. China’s urban SRB has been abnormally high. Yet, estimators using small sample sizes usually arrive at wide confidence intervals, which made it impossible to draw a conclusion whether the SRB is abnormal or not.